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Bayesian inference on group differences in multivariate categorical data

机译:多变量分类数据中群体差异的贝叶斯推断

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摘要

Multivariate categorical data are common in many fields. We are motivated byelection polls studies assessing evidence of changes in voters opinions withtheir candidates preferences in the 2016 United States Presidential primariesor caucuses. Similar goals arise routinely in several applications, but currentliterature lacks a general methodology which combines flexibility, efficiency,and tractability in testing for group differences in multivariate categoricaldata at different---potentially complex---scales. We address this goal byleveraging a Bayesian representation which factorizes the joint probabilitymass function for the group variable and the multivariate categorical data asthe product of the marginal probabilities for the groups, and the conditionalprobability mass function of the multivariate categorical data, given the groupmembership. To enhance flexibility, we define the conditional probability massfunction of the multivariate categorical data via a group-dependent mixture oftensor factorizations, thus facilitating dimensionality reduction and borrowingof information, while providing tractable procedures for computation, andaccurate tests assessing global and local group differences. We compare ourmethods with popular competitors, and discuss improved performance insimulations and in American election polls studies.
机译:多元分类数据在许多领域都很常见。我们受到选民调查研究的激励,这些研究评估了选民意见变化的证据,以及他们在2016年美国总统初选或预选会议上的候选人偏爱。在几种应用中,通常会出现类似的目标,但当前的文献缺乏一种通用的方法,该方法结合了灵活性,效率和易处理性,以测试在不同(可能是复杂)尺度下的多元分类数据的组差异。我们通过利用贝叶斯表示来解决该目标,该贝叶斯表示将组变量和多元分类数据的联合概率质量函数分解为组边际概率的乘积,并在给定了组成员资格的情况下将多元分类数据的条件概率质量函数分解为因子。为了提高灵活性,我们通过依赖于组的混合常数分解或因子分解来定义多元分类数据的条件概率质量函数,从而有利于降维和信息借用,同时提供易于处理的计算程序以及评估全局和局部组差异的准确测试。我们将我们的方法与受欢迎的竞争对手进行比较,并讨论改进的绩效模拟以及美国大选民意测验。

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